Books Catalogue
Books Catalogue

Socio-Economic Indicators and Classification of Arab Economies

 

Author: Ahmed Al-Kawaz (Editor)
Series:
Price: $30.00 (KD9.000)
ISBN Number:
Language: English
Publisher: Arab Planning Institute - Kuwait
Description:

Arab countries, like others, are not homogenous but rather heterogeneous. This is true whether in terms of per capita income, market structures, income distribution, foreign trade, public finance, or monetary aspects, among others. Historically speaking, different international, regional, and local organizations have adopted different criteria with which to classify Arab countries into groups. These criteria include: oil and non-oil producing countries, labor exporters/importers, surplus/deficit balance of payments.

This chapter intends to survey a sample of the criteria applied in different regions of the world, including the Arab region. This survey is followed by a brief summary of the three papers presented in this book.

F. Vogel in his assessment of the criteria adopted by the World Bank has criticized the classification of countries into low-income countries, middle-income countries, high-income oil exporters, industrialized countries, and non-reporting non members. His argument is that such criteria depart from purely economic considerations. Moreover, the determination of per capita income used in demarcating the groups of countries is arbitrarily determined (Vogel, 1993, p. 307).

As an alternative, Vogel suggests classifying countries according to their stage of development. To identify this stage a set of demographic, social, economic, and political variables are analyzed through cluster analysis. Factor analysis has been refuted since it is not an â??efficient statistical instrumentâ?‌ (Ibid, p. 313). Accordingly, Vogel is able to classify 112 countries into five groups based on 57 variables, with reference to their stage of development. The five groups are developing countries in the strict sense (i.e., the least-developed countries) with one Arab country, highly developed countries (i.e., industrialized countries) with no Arab countries, type I threshold countries (i.e., with a deficit in the political sphere) with eight Arab countries, developed countries (i.e., political and/or geographically isolated countries) with one Arab country, and type II threshold countries (i.e., with a deficit in the economic sphere) with two Arab countries (Ibid., p. 313).

In contrast to the approach of Vogel, the Human Development Report of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) uses a different approach which is based on the Human Development Index (HDI). This index is weighted average of three variables: life expectancy, adult literacy, and per capita income. The HDI is calculated for almost all countries; then three groups of countries are established according to the value of the index. These groups are countries with high, middle and low HDIs.

Since the year 1991, the HDI has been modified in such a way to include a sensitivity to income distribution, and to provide for general-based calculation of the index. According to the 1996 Human Development Report, three, eleven, and three Arab countries failed under high, middle, and low HDIs, respectively (UNDP, 1996, pp. 136-137).
The work of Dellaportas, on the other hand, classifies 62 countries with reference to their level of development. Such level is determined by a number of social, economic nutritional demographic, cultural, and health indicators. The technique used in classifying these countries into most, more, and less developed countries is based on discriminant analysis. One Arab country is classified as a more developed country, whereas only two Arab countries are classified as less developed countries, and none are classified being among the most developed countries (Dellaportas, 1983, pp. 153-158).

The classification method followed by the United Nations Study on the Future of the World Economy is a bit different. Two main criteria are applied, i.e. per capital income and the share of manufacturing in the gross domestic product (GDP). Other supporting criteria are also used, such as gathering all oil producing countries in a single regional unit, and the criterion of average annual rainfall, in the case of African countries (Leontief et al., 1977, p. 17). This method resulted in 15 groups. The Arab world is classified under the group entitled â??The Middle East and Oil Producing African Countriesâ?‌ (Leontief and Duchin, 1983, pp. 11-12).

Speaking of Arab reports and research projects, the Unified Arab Economic Report has adopted the classification of Arab countries into members and nonmembers of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries, OAPEC (Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development, et al., 1997, p. 292).

The Interdependence Project conducted by OAPEC and an Italian company (ENI), divides Arab countries into three groups: (a) Arab economies with diversified resources, intensive population, and suffering from a balance-of-payment deficit, (b) Arab economies with a balance-of-payment surplus and a shortage of labor, and (c) Arab oil-importing countries with a tangible commercial deficit (Shawkat, 1986, p. 11).

Finally, the research project of the Center for Arab Unity Studies on the â??Prospective of the Arab Worldâ?‌ classifies Arab countries into four groups on a geographical basis. These groups are the Arabian Gulf and Peninsula (i.e., Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and Yemen), the Eastern Arab states (Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq), and the Western Arab states (i.e., Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, and Mauritania). Geographical, political and economic considerations were used to develop this type of classification (Haseeb, et al., 1988, pp. 293-294).
Having said that, the papers presented in this book are aimed at providing the information and data required to assess the main economic and social characteristics of the different Arab countries. This is done for the years 1970, 1980, and 1990, unless stated otherwise.

The paper on â??Foreign Trade, Exchange Rate and Balance-of-Payments Characteristics of Arab Countriesâ?‌ chapter two, presents a set of monetary and trade indicators on a number of Arab countries. Among these indicators are the value and price index of exports and imports; official exchange rate; degree of openness; GDP; net worker remittances; nominal and real effective exchange rates; exchange rate regimes; international reserves; portfolio in, out and net; capital outflow; direct investment out; trade and current balances; and consumer price index. Accordingly, this paper concludes that (a) recently, most Arab countries suffer from chronic trade deficits, even those that had been enjoying trade surpluses, (b) the dominance of Arab trade with industrialized countries is apparent, and comes at the expense of inter-Arab trade, and (c) there is a tendency toward removing legal and administrative obstacles facing the economic reform programs in Arab countries.

The paper entitled â??Human Resources: Demographic and Labor Market Characteristics in the Arab World,â?‌ chapter three, proves estimations for a wide range of labor market indicators. These include, among others, population, economically active population, distribution of expatriate population, birth and death rate of growth, economic participation rate, illiteracy rate, crude schooling rate, HDI, unemployment rate, people living in poverty, income distribution, and labor productivity. A number of population and labor characteristics can be drawn from this paper, which are (a) most Arab states share a relatively high population growth rate; (b) the active population ranges between one-third to one-half of the total population; and (c) the heterogeneity of unemployment, illiteracy, dependency, and labor productivity rates are obvious, and (d) the HDI varies.

To make use of the above-mentioned indicators and other external data, chapter four entitled: â??A Socio-Economic Taxonomy of Arab Countries,â?‌ explores the cluster and factor analysis techniques to operate an objective typology of Arab countries and to test the validity of common classification stereotypes. Based on the data and techniques used, the main findings of this paper are: (a) the classification based on oil and non-oil producing countries is the most meaningful criterion, and (b) the most important factors affecting the variation among Arab countries are those which reflect the development level, balance-of-payment conditions, population and labor structure, fiscal-monetary position, and general equilibrium conditions.

Finally, the editor would like to express his gratitude and appreciation to the three authors for their contributions, and the Arab Planning Instituteâ??s administration for providing the administrative and financial support to bring this publication to light.



 

Table of contents

Preface iv

Chapter One
Introduction (A. Al-Kawaz) 1

Chapter Two
Foreign Trade, Exchange Rate and Balance-Of-Payments
Characteristics of Arab Economies (R. Dahel) 5

2.1 Introduction 5
2.2 Algeria 5
2.3 Bahrain 7
2.4 Egypt 8
2.5 Jordan 9
2.6 Kuwait 10
2.7 Lebanon 11
2.8 Libya 12
2.9 Mauritania 13
2.10 Morocco 14
2.11 Oman 16
2.12 Qatar 16
2.13 Saudi Arabia 17
2.14 Sudan 18
2.15 Syria 19
2.16 Tunisia 20
2.17 United Arab Emirates 21
2.18 Yemen 22
2.19 Conclusion 23

Appendix I : Foreign trade characteristics of Arab countries (1970, 25
1980, and 1992)
Appendix II : Exchange rate balance-of-payments characteristics of 42
Arab countries (1970, 1980, and 1992)
Appendix III : Variable and data sources 59
References 61

Chapter Three
Human Resources : Demographic And Labor Market 62
Characteristics in the Arab World (M. A. Wadie)

3.1 Introduction: The functions of human resource management 62
3.1.1 Human resource mobilization 62
3.1.2 Human resource development 63
3.1.3 Human resource employment 63

3.2 Arab human resources: its characteristics and limitations 64
3.2.1 Population growth and distribution in the Arab world 64
3.2.1.1 Total size 64
3.2.1.2 Population density and distribution 65
3.2.1.3 High population growth rates 65
3.2.1.3.1 Fertility 66
3.2.1.3.2 Birth 66
3.2.1.3.3 Mortality 66
3.2.1.3.4 Net migration 66
3.2.1.4 The age distribution pyramid 66
3.2.1.5 The dependency ratio 68

3.3 Human resource development 70
3.3.1 Underinvestment in human capital (education) 70
3.3.1.1 The persistence of illiteracy 71
3.3.1.2 The populationâ??s accumulated education 73
(i.e., educational stock)
3.3.1.3 Scientific and technical capacity 74
3.3.1.4 School enrollement rates 75
3.3.1.5 The development of higher education 75
3.3.2 Investment in health 77
3.3.2.1 Life expectancy 77
3.3.2.2 Expenditures on health 78
3.3.2.3 Population-to-doctor ratio 79
3.3.2.4 Housing 80
3.3.3 Index for human development 80
3.3.3.1 The gender gap in human development 82
3.3.3.2. Progress of the human development index (HDI) 84
in the Arab world
3.3.3.3 Other indicators of human capital environment 85
3.3.3.4 Poverty and income distribution 85

3.4 Employing human resources 86
3.4.1 The characteristics and limitations of the Arab labor market 86
3.4.1.1 Economic background of the labor market 87
3.4.1.2 Duality of the market 87
3.4.1.3 Lower worker skills 89
3.4.1.4 The deficiency of social security for workers 89
3.4.1.5 The swelling of public sector employment 91
3.4.1.6 Dominance of the agricultural workforce 91
3.4.1.7 Slow industrial development 93
3.4.1.8 The increasing role of the service sector in
employing labor 93
3.4.1.9 The mobility of the Arab workforce 93
3.4.1.10 Wage indices 94
3.4.2 Employment indicators 94
3.4.2.1 The working age population and economic 94
activity rates
3.4.2.2 The youthful population 96
3.4.2.3 The low participation rate of women 96
3.4.2.4 Labor force 97
3.4.2.5 Professional distribution of the economically 98
active population
3.4.3 Unemployment
3.4.3.1 General condition 99
3.4.3.2 Age distribution of unemployment 99
3.4.4 Utilizing the educational stock 100
3.4.4.1 The problems of employment and the development 100
of the relationship between education and the labor market
3.4.4.2 The state is the main employer of degree holders 101
3.4.4.3. Unemployment of the educated 102
3.4.4.4 Underemployment of the educational stock 102
3.4.4.5 Brain drain 103
3.4.4.6 Laborâ??s education needs: The socio-economic 105
demand for degree-holders
3.4.4.7 Employment potential in the Arab world 107
3.4.4.8 The effects of advancement in science and technology 108
on human resources
3.5 Conclusion 110
References 111

Chapter Four
A Socio-Economic Taxonomy of Arab Countries (I. Limam) 113
4.1 Introduction 113
4.2 Methodology 116
4.2.1 Clustering Techniques 116
4.2.1.1 Single linkage (Nearest neighbour method) 117
4.2.1.2 Complete linkage (Further neighbour method) 118
4.2.1.3 Wardâ??s method 118
4.2.1.4 K-means 118
4.2.2 Factor Analysis 119
4.3 The Data 123
4.4. Results 128
4.4.1 General Classification of Arab Countries 128
4.4.1.1 Cluster analysis classification 128
4.4.1.2 Factor analysis classification 128
4.4.2 Sector-specific classification of Arab countries 130
4.4.2.1 Labor market classification 130
4.4.2.2 Economic classification 130
4.4.2.3 Fiscal sector classification 130
4.4.2.4 Financial sector classification 132
4.4.2.5 External sector classification 132
4.4.2.6 Population and demographic classification 133
4.4.2.7 Social sector classification 134
4.5 Conclusion
Appendix I : General Classification of Arab Countries Using Cluster Analysis 134
Appendix II : General Classification of Arab Countries Using Factor Analysis 137
Appendix III : Sector Specific Classification of Arab Countries 146

References 153


 

Date: 1999

 

Number of Pages: 153

 

Price : $30.00 (KD9.000)

 

 


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